Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, at 13%. The market settles by Mar 31, 2027, and $103K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 13¢ reads as a 13% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
16 of these outcomes are priced on Kalshi too: the favourite is compared below, and each outcome links its own comparison.
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms compare | 13% | 13¢ | $7K | Trade |
| Save the Children compare | 8% | 8¢ | $1K | Trade |
| International Court of Justice compare | 7% | 7¢ | $7K | Trade |
| Mykola Kuleba | 7% | 7¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Committee to Protect Journalists compare | 5% | 5¢ | $351 | Trade |
| Yulia Navalnaya compare | 5% | 5¢ | $6K | Trade |
| UNHCR | 4% | 4¢ | $991 | Trade |
| Sara Al-Saqqa compare | 3% | 3¢ | $6K | Trade |
| UNRWA compare | 3% | 3¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Reporters Without Borders compare | 2% | 2¢ | $322 | Trade |
Show 23 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chow Hang-tung compare | 2% | 2¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Hussam Abu Safiya | 2% | 2¢ | $207 | Trade |
| Pope Leo XIV compare | 2% | 2¢ | $5K | Trade |
| ICRC compare | 2% | 2¢ | $220 | Trade |
| Mark Carney compare | 1% | 1¢ | $5K | Trade |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani compare | 1% | 1¢ | $192 | Trade |
| António Guterres | 1% | 1¢ | $49 | Trade |
| World Central Kitchen | 1% | 1¢ | $77 | Trade |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy compare | 1% | 1¢ | $433 | Trade |
| Greta Thunberg | 1% | 1¢ | $859 | Trade |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Donald Trump compare | 1% | 1¢ | $45K | Trade |
| Julian Assange | <1% | <1¢ | $157 | Trade |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Xi Jinping | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Charlie Kirk | – | – | $2K | Trade |
| Elon Musk compare | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Mohammed bin Salman | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Vladimir Putin | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Khaled Mashal | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Narendra Modi | – | – | $4K | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 13¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 13¢cheapest to buy | 87¢ | 0.6¢ | $7K | $29K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 15¢ | 85¢ | 0.9¢ | $21K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Scheduled resolution: Oct 9, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 13¢ for Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, at 13%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.