Will the US confirm that aliens exist? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 31, is at 5%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $87K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 5¢ reads as a 5% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Also on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: 2 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 5¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 5¢ | 95¢ | free | $53K | $523K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 5¢ | 95¢ | 0.3¢ | $12K | – | Trade → |
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢ | >99¢ | free | $34K | $213K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $2K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 5¢ for December 31 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Will the US confirm that aliens exist?”?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 31, is at 5%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.