Polymarket Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Matt Damon, is at 90%. The market settles by Mar 14, 2027, and $14K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 90¢ reads as a 90% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Damon | 90% | 90¢ | $5K | Trade |
| Sam Rockwell | 7% | 7¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Tom Cruise | 51% | 51¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Anthony Ippolito | 43% | 43¢ | $996 | Trade |
| Robert Pattinson | 44% | 44¢ | $750 | Trade |
| John Turturro | 47% | 47¢ | $373 | Trade |
| John Malkovich | 85% | 85¢ | $338 | Trade |
| Pedro Pascal | 16% | 16¢ | $331 | Trade |
| Timothée Chalamet | 11% | 11¢ | $51 | Trade |
| Adam Driver | 5% | 5¢ | $48 | Trade |
Show 9 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaafar Jackson | 17% | 17¢ | $2 | Trade |
| Andrew Scott | 85% | 85¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Ryan Gosling | 44% | 44¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Sebastian Stan | 19% | 19¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Brad Pitt | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Javier Bardem | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Josh O'Connor | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jeremy Strong | 2% | 2¢ | $126 | Trade |
| Robert Aramayo | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 90¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Jan 20, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 90¢ for Matt Damon right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Matt Damon, is at 90%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.