What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Michigan? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Russia / Ukraine, is at 73%. The market settles by Oct 26, 2026, and $13K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 73¢ reads as a 73% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia / Ukraine | 73% | 73¢ | $1K | Trade |
| China / Chinese 7+ times | 49% | 49¢ | $994 | Trade |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 15% | 15¢ | $722 | Trade |
| Hormuz / Blockade | 72% | 72¢ | $675 | Trade |
| Osama Bin Laden | 49% | 49¢ | $618 | Trade |
| Marxist | 57% | 57¢ | $611 | Trade |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times | 71% | 71¢ | $583 | Trade |
| Electric / Electricity | 56% | 56¢ | $515 | Trade |
| SI / Super Intelligence | 69% | 69¢ | $412 | Trade |
| Hell 15+ times | 44% | 44¢ | $387 | Trade |
Show 10 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ass | 45% | 45¢ | $376 | Trade |
| Transgender 7+ times | 43% | 43¢ | $371 | Trade |
| Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times | 41% | 41¢ | $218 | Trade |
| Canada 4+ times | 66% | 66¢ | $97 | Trade |
| Data Center | 41% | 41¢ | $16 | Trade |
| Fentanyl / Deport / Deported | 29% | 29¢ | $10 | Trade |
| Palestine / Palestinian | 42% | 42¢ | $2 | Trade |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | 2% | 2¢ | $3K | Trade |
| No Qualifying Event- | 1% | 1¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Maduro | – | – | $438 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 73¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in St. Clair, Michigan on October 26, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-st-clair-mi-president-donald-j-trump-djt47)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Michigan on October 26, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
The resolution source will be audio/video of the event.
For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Scheduled resolution: Oct 26, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket app review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 73¢ for Russia / Ukraine right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?”?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Russia / Ukraine, is at 73%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.