New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?: odds and prices
Markets price "New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? " at 3%, with 2 venues quoting within 3 points of each other. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | free | $30K | $104K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 5¢ | 96¢ | 0.3¢ | $2K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix officially releases a new episode of Stranger Things (i.e., an episode that was not previously available to stream on Netflix) between market creation and…
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix officially releases a new episode of Stranger Things (i.e., an episode that was not previously available to stream on Netflix) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, an “episode” must be listed as a distinct episode of Stranger Things on Netflix and be playable for general subscribers in the United States. A behind-the-scenes featurette, documentary, trailer, recap, cast interview, deleted scenes compilation, or other bonus content will not count unless it is clearly presented by Netflix as an official numbered or titled episode of the series.
If Netflix releases an alternate cut, extended cut, or “secret” version of an already-released episode, it will not count unless it is listed as a separate episode entry on Netflix.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Stranger Things title page on Netflix (episode list and availability), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If A New Episode of Stranger Things has been publicly released Worldwide through official channels before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The media must be made available to the general public through at least one official distribution channel, including theatrical release, streaming availability, physical media (DVD, Blu-ray), or authorized digital purchase/download. The release must be accessible without special invitations or industry credentials in at least one major metropolitan area if the geography refers to a country. Private screenings, film festivals, leaked content, and torrent availability do not qualify. Trailers and soundtracks do not satisfy the criterion unless the full media is released. Different versions or formats of the same base content (theatrical, director's cut, extended edition) are considered the same media if the core content is substantially identical. Foreign language titles are considered the same media unless otherwise specified.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? "?
Markets currently price it at 3% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? "?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.