Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man: odds and prices
Markets price "Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man" at 93%, with 2 venues quoting at the same price. The contract settles by Jun 30, 2027; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 93¢ | 7¢ | free | $2 | $471 | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 93¢ | 7¢ | 0.5¢ | $46 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December 18, 2026.
Full settlement wording
Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve upon announcement of casting, regardless of if the film is delayed, cancelled, or otherwise fails to be released. If no casting is announced, this market will resolve upon footage of the domestic theatrical cut of the film. If multiple people are cast for the same role, the listed individual being among the cast list for the relevant character will be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no casting is announced and Avengers: Doomsday is definitively cancelled or fails to be released by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., the domestic theatrical cut of Avengers: Doomsday, or a consensus of credible reporting.
If Tobey Maguire performs / is announced as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this Contract, Tobey Maguire satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Tobey Maguire is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Tobey Maguire appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as Spider-Man in any official performance, showing, or release of Avengers: Doomsday. Additional clarification(s): If Avengers: Doomsday is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Tobey Maguire was officially announced in Spider-Man, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for Spider-Man (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Tobey Maguire is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) Avengers: Doomsday is cancelled or completes its run without Tobey Maguire being announced or performing in Spider-Man, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for Spider-Man. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Disney. Any references to Disney or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Disney and Kalshi.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man"?
Markets currently price it at 93% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.