Will "The Diplomat: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week? Odds and prices
"Will "The Diplomat: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week" is priced at 0% on Polymarket and 1% on Kalshi, where Kalshi has no live quote: the venues disagree, so 1% is their average, not a consensus. The contract settles by Oct 27, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢ | >99¢ | free | $342 | $2K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | 99¢ | 0.1¢ | $151 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).
Full settlement wording
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).
This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically.
The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows.
If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If The Diplomat: Season 4 is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Oct 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday. Therefore, the market will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before. The chart published on Oct 27, 2026 will be for the week ending the previous Sunday. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Netflix. Any references to Netflix, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Netflix and Kalshi.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will "The Diplomat: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week"?
The venues disagree: 0% on Polymarket and 1% on Kalshi. The 1% shown is their average; the gap often comes from settlement rules worded differently, compared on this page.
Where can I trade "Will "The Diplomat: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.