Polymarket TIME Person of the Year 2026 odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Zohran Mamdani, is at 26%. The market settles by Jun 30, 2027, and $473 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 26¢ reads as a 26% chance. Polymarket US and Kalshi list it too, and we compare the prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Also on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket US and Kalshi: compare them
12 of these outcomes are priced on Polymarket US and Kalshi too: the favourite is compared below, and each outcome links its own comparison.
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani compare | 26% | 26¢ | $345 | Trade |
| Artificial Intelligence | 7% | 7¢ | $76 | Trade |
| Mark Carney compare | 17% | 17¢ | $25 | Trade |
| Benjamin Netanyahu compare | 9% | 9¢ | $17 | Trade |
| Donald Trump compare | 8% | 8¢ | $6 | Trade |
| Pope Leo XIV compare | 15% | 15¢ | $5 | Trade |
| Dario Amodei compare | 8% | 8¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Elon Musk compare | 7% | 7¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Marco Rubio compare | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Victor Glover | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
Show 18 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christina Koch compare | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Reid Wiseman | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| James Talarico compare | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Péter Magyar | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| ChatGPT | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Bad Bunny | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jeremy Hansen | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Shehbaz Sharif | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Taylor Swift | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Sam Altman | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Alysa Liu compare | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Ali Khamenei | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Ali G | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jerome Powell | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Bernie Sanders compare | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 26¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on each venue: Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 26¢cheapest to buy | 75¢ | free | $345 | $54K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 29¢ | 72¢ | 1.4¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 28¢cheapest to buy | 73¢ | 1.4¢ | $4K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year.
Additionally, the following rules apply:
If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous.
If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017.
If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 30, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 26¢ for Zohran Mamdani right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on TIME Person of the Year 2026?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Zohran Mamdani, is at 26%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. It trades on Polymarket US and Kalshi. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows every venue’s prices and rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.