Polymarket TIME Person of the Year 2026 odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Mark Carney, is at 15%. The market settles by Jun 30, 2027, and $3K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 15¢ reads as a 15% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: 6 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Carney compare | 15% | 15¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Donald Trump compare | 8% | 8¢ | $225 | Trade |
| Zohran Mamdani compare | 30% | 30¢ | $44 | Trade |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 4% | 4¢ | $21 | Trade |
| Bernie Sanders | 4% | 4¢ | $8 | Trade |
| Pope Leo XIV compare | 10% | 10¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Benjamin Netanyahu compare | 8% | 8¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Dario Amodei compare | 7% | 7¢ | $0 | Trade |
| James Talarico | 7% | 7¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Christina Koch | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
Show 17 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Glover | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jeremy Hansen | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Reid Wiseman | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Elon Musk | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Bad Bunny | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Artificial Intelligence | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| ChatGPT | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Sam Altman | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Shehbaz Sharif | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Alysa Liu | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Marco Rubio | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Péter Magyar | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Taylor Swift | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Ali Khamenei | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jerome Powell | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 15¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 30¢ | 70¢ | 1.0¢ | $44 | $37K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 30¢ | 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $6K | – | Trade → |
Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 15¢cheapest to buy | 85¢ | 0.6¢ | $2K | $4K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 17¢ | 83¢ | 1.0¢ | $5K | – | Trade → |
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10¢ | 90¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | $24K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 10¢ | 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $652 | – | Trade → |
Will Dario Amodei be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7¢cheapest to buy | 93¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | $20K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 8¢ | 92¢ | 0.5¢ | $226 | – | Trade → |
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8¢ | 92¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | $24K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 7¢cheapest to buy | 93¢ | 0.4¢ | $2 | – | Trade → |
Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8¢ | 92¢ | 0.3¢ | $225 | $28K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 7¢cheapest to buy | 93¢ | 0.4¢ | $740 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year.
Additionally, the following rules apply:
If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous.
If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017.
If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 30, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 15¢ for Mark Carney right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on TIME Person of the Year 2026?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Mark Carney, is at 15%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 6 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.