Polymarket Fed Decision in January odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is No change, at 68%. The market settles by Jan 27, 2027, and $11K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 68¢ reads as a 68% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
This question also has a permanent page: Fed rate decision odds
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: 5 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 68¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 68¢ | 32¢ | free | $470 | $126K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 64¢cheapest to buy | 36¢ | 1.6¢ | $11 | – | Trade → |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 29¢cheapest to buy | 72¢ | free | $58 | $213K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 32¢ | 69¢ | 1.5¢ | $14 | – | Trade → |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 1¢cheapest to buy | 99¢ | free | $0 | $110K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 3¢ | 98¢ | 0.2¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 1¢cheapest to buy | 99¢ | free | $10K | $105K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 2¢ | 99¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | – | Trade → |
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 1¢ | 99¢ | free | $700 | $142K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Scheduled resolution: Jan 27, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 68¢ for No change right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Fed Decision in January?
On Polymarket, the favourite is No change, at 68%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 5 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.