Another Fed rate hike in 2026: odds and prices
Markets price "Another Fed rate hike in 2026" at 76%, with 2 venues quoting within 3 points of each other. The contract settles by Dec 9, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Polymarket US. Permanent page: Fed rate decision odds
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 78¢ | 23¢ | free | $15K | $291K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 75¢cheapest to buy | 26¢ | 1.3¢ | – | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting,…
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will settle to Yes if the United States Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM…
Full settlement wording
This market will settle to Yes if the United States Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from the Federal Reserve.
Rate changes taken at scheduled FOMC meetings or at unscheduled or emergency meetings will both qualify.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
Related markets
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Another Fed rate hike in 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 76% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Another Fed rate hike in 2026"?
On Polymarket and Polymarket US. Polymarket US takes US residents only; from the US, polymarket.com is close-only. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.