Polymarket Fed rate cut odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 2026 Meeting, is at 4%. The market settles by Jan 28, 2028, and $2K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 4¢ reads as a 4% chance.
This question also has a permanent page: Fed rate decision odds
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 2026 Meeting | 4% | 4¢ | $2K | Trade |
| October 2026 Meeting | 1% | 1¢ | $98 | Trade |
| June 2027 Meeting | 36% | 36¢ | $0 | Trade |
| March 2027 Meeting | 22% | 22¢ | $0 | Trade |
| January 2027 Meeting | 7% | 7¢ | $16 | Trade |
| July 2027 Meeting | – | – | $6 | Trade |
| April 2027 Meeting | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| June MeetingFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| September 2026 MeetingFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| January MeetingFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Show 3 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July MeetingFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| April MeetingFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| March MeetingFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 4¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Jan 28, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 4¢ for December 2026 Meeting right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Fed rate cut?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 2026 Meeting, is at 4%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.