How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Below 4.25%, is at 10%. The market settles by Dec 30, 2026, and $27K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 10¢ reads as a 10% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.00% | 5% | 5¢ | $355 | Trade |
| Below 4.10% | 5% | 5¢ | $564 | Trade |
| Below 4.20% | 10% | 10¢ | $10K | Trade |
| Below 4.25% | 10% | 10¢ | $11K | Trade |
| Below 4.30% | 13% | 13¢ | $328 | Trade |
| Below 4.35% | 18% | 18¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Below 4.40% | 25% | 25¢ | $22 | Trade |
| Below 4.45% | 29% | 29¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Below 4.50% | 38% | 38¢ | $242 | Trade |
| Below 4.55% | 45% | 45¢ | $258 | Trade |
Show 3 more outcomes
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 5¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Scheduled resolution: Dec 30, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 5¢ for Below 4.00% right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?”?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Below 4.25%, is at 10%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.