Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, ↑$3.0T, is at 17%. The market settles by Jan 4, 2027, and $29K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 17¢ reads as a 17% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑$1.5T | 86% | 86¢ | $8K | Trade |
| ↑$1.75T | 77% | 77¢ | $473 | Trade |
| ↑$2.0T | 59% | 59¢ | $1K | Trade |
| ↑$2.25T | 33% | 33¢ | $0 | Trade |
| ↑$2.5T | 27% | 27¢ | $502 | Trade |
| ↑$3.0T | 17% | 17¢ | $9K | Trade |
| ↑$4.0T | 5% | 5¢ | $1K | Trade |
| ↑$5.0T | 4% | 4¢ | $7K | Trade |
| ↓$600B | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| ↓$700B | 4% | 4¢ | $100 | Trade |
Show 4 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓$800B | 7% | 7¢ | $2K | Trade |
| ↑$1.0TFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| ↑$1.1TFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| ↑$1.25TFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 86¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Scheduled resolution: Jan 4, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 86¢ for ↑$1.5T right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?”?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, ↑$3.0T, is at 17%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.