How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is 0 (0 bps), at 96%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $10K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 96¢ reads as a 96% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
This question also has a permanent page: Fed rate decision odds
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
9 of these outcomes are priced on Kalshi too: the favourite is compared below, and each outcome links its own comparison: every one compared
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 96% | 96¢ | $5K | Trade |
| 1 (25 bps) compare | 2% | 2¢ | $1K | Trade |
| 2 (50 bps) compare | 1% | 1¢ | $11 | Trade |
| 3 (75 bps) compare | <1% | <1¢ | $365 | Trade |
| 4 (100 bps) compare | <1% | <1¢ | $2K | Trade |
| 5 (125 bps) compare | – | – | $905 | Trade |
| 6 (150 bps) compare | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| 7 (175 bps) | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| 8 (200 bps) | – | – | $5 | Trade |
| 9 (225 bps) compare | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Show 3 more outcomes
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 96¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | 0.1¢ | $1K | $115K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 4¢ | 96¢ | 0.3¢ | $1K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 96¢ for 0 (0 bps) right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?”?
On Polymarket, the favourite is 0 (0 bps), at 96%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.