Kalshi 10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026 odds
On Kalshi, 4.81% or above closed at 99%. Trading has closed; the result settles the contracts. A contract that closed at 99¢ pays $1 if that outcome is the result, and nothing if not. The settlement rules below say what decided the result.
Kalshi · final prices · updated
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.81% or aboveFinal | 99% | 99¢ | $0 |
| 4.83% or aboveFinal | 99% | 99¢ | $1K |
| 4.85% or aboveFinal | 99% | 99¢ | $3K |
| 4.87% or aboveFinal | 99% | 99¢ | $5K |
| 4.89% or aboveFinal | 99% | 99¢ | $3K |
| 4.91% or aboveFinal | 99% | 99¢ | $5K |
| 4.93% or aboveFinal | 99% | 99¢ | $5K |
| 4.95% or aboveFinal | 99% | 99¢ | $2K |
| 4.97% or aboveFinal | 99% | 99¢ | $3K |
| 4.99% or aboveFinal | 99% | 99¢ | $4K |
Show 5 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.01% or aboveFinal | 1% | 1¢ | $3K |
| 5.03% or aboveFinal | 3% | 3¢ | $1K |
| 5.05% or aboveFinal | 1% | 1¢ | $4K |
| 5.07% or aboveFinal | 1% | 1¢ | $2K |
| 5.09% or aboveFinal | 1% | 1¢ | $3K |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 99¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market settled
The market asks: “Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.80% on Oct 26, 2026?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Oct 26, 2026.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on 10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?
On Kalshi, 4.81% or above closed at 99%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Trading has ended on Kalshi. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues in general.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.