Polymarket OpenAI announces bankruptcy odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 31, 2028, is at 16%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2029, and $74K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 16¢ reads as a 16% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 20¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2028.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on OpenAI announces bankruptcy?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 31, 2028, is at 16%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.