Polymarket Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Hike–Pause–Hike, at 73%. The market settles by Dec 9, 2026, and $32K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 73¢ reads as a 73% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.
This question also has a permanent page: Fed rate decision odds
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike–Pause–Hike | 73% | 73¢ | $12K | Trade |
| Hike–Pause–Pause | 21% | 21¢ | $9K | Trade |
| Hike–Hike–Hike | 3% | 3¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Hike–Hike–Pause | 2% | 2¢ | $5K | Trade |
| Other | 1% | 1¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Pause–Pause–PauseFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Pause–Hike–PauseFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Pause–Pause–HikeFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Pause–Hike–HikeFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 73¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Scheduled resolution: Dec 9, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket app review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 73¢ for Hike–Pause–Hike right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Hike–Pause–Hike, at 73%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.