Polymarket Another Fed rate hike in 2026 odds
On Polymarket, Yes trades at 78%. The market settles by Dec 9, 2026, and $15K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 78¢ reads as a 78% chance. Polymarket US lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
This question also has a permanent page: Fed rate decision odds
Also on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 78¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 78¢ | 23¢ | free | $15K | $291K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 75¢cheapest to buy | 26¢ | 1.3¢ | – | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 9, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 78¢ for Yes right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
More economy markets
Fed Decision in October
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Kalshi · resolves Oct 28, 2026
$1.9M in 24h on Polymarket
Fed Decision in December
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Dec 9, 2026
$127K in 24h, both venues
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$117K in 24h on Polymarket
OpenAI announces bankruptcy
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2029
$74K in 24h on Polymarket
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2027
$40K in 24h on Polymarket
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Polymarket · resolves Dec 9, 2026
$32K in 24h on Polymarket
Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
On Polymarket, Yes trades at 78%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Not on Kalshi yet: it trades on Polymarket US. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.