Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2026? Odds and prices

9%
Yes

Consensus across 2 venues · Updated

Markets price "Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2026" at 9%, with 2 venues quoting within 1 point of each other. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.

This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.

$1.2M
24h volume, both venues
2
venues quoting
Dec 31, 2026
settles

Odds by venue

Yes: Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2026?: price on each venue, the fee, 24h volume and liquidity, with a link to trade
VenueYesNoFee24h volumeLiquidity
PolymarketClose-only for US residents10¢90¢0.4¢$217K$94KTrade →
Kalshi$50 bonus9¢cheapest to buy92¢0.5¢$956K–Trade →
Updated Fee: the taker fee on one contract at the price shown, as each venue publishes it; Polymarket’s is its international book.

How the odds have moved

Polymarket · Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2026
10%▲ 3.4 pts since Nov 12
Yes price
Nov 123% – 14% scaleNov 14

One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.

What the market is actually pricing

Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.

Polymarket

On November 12, 2026, NVIDIA announced that Jensen Huang had resigned as its President, Chief Executive Officer, and a member of its Board of Directors, effective immediately.

Full settlement wording

On November 12, 2026, NVIDIA announced that Jensen Huang had resigned as its President, Chief Executive Officer, and a member of its Board of Directors, effective immediately.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jensen Huang is officially announced as accepting or beginning a formal role within the corporate or governance structure of NVIDIA between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Qualifying roles include employment, executive, officer, director, formal advisory, or governance positions at NVIDIA, including on an interim or acting basis and membership in a body formally responsible for governing or overseeing the company. A role within a subsidiary or controlled entity of NVIDIA will also qualify.

Merely holding or trading NVIDIA shares, voting as a shareholder, entering into a commercial or research partnership with NVIDIA, informally advising, appearing at NVIDIA events, or receiving an honorary or emeritus title will not qualify unless Jensen Huang also accepts or begins a formal role within NVIDIA’s corporate or governance structure.

An official announcement that Jensen Huang has accepted a qualifying role will be sufficient, regardless of when he formally begins serving in that role.

The primary resolution source will be official information from NVIDIA (including its filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) or Jensen Huang; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If Jensen Huang is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as CEO for NVIDIA before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

An official announcement by NVIDIA is sufficient to resolve the market. The person need not begin the CEO position. Interim or acting appointments do not qualify. The full NEWROLE rules govern resolution.

Where you can trade this

The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.

Related markets

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Common questions

What are the odds on "Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2026"?

Markets currently price it at 9% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.

Where can I trade "Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2026"?

On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.