Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad: odds and prices
Markets price "Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad" at 3%, with 2 venues quoting within 2 points of each other. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 4¢ | 96¢ | 0.2¢ | $2K | $9K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | 0.1¢ | $7 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a human case of pneumonic plague outside the Russian Federation is confirmed and established as epidemiologically linked to the outbreak associated with the…
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a human case of pneumonic plague outside the Russian Federation is confirmed and established as epidemiologically linked to the outbreak associated with the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies.
An epidemiological link means a qualifying source states that the case acquired its infection from a person, animal, sample or material connected to the Irkutsk outbreak, or that the case travelled from Irkutsk Oblast within the incubation period and is being investigated as part of that outbreak.
Resolution is based on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation and the link, not the date of exposure, symptom onset or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the WHO and the national public health authority of the country reporting the case; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Rospotrebnadzor announces the identification of a specific pathogen as the cause of the fatal pneumonia of an Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee before Nov 1, 2026, then the market…
Only an announcement by Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, including its Irkutsk Oblast office, counts. It must name a specific organism, such as Yersinia pestis or another bacterium, virus or fungus identified by genus or species, as the cause of the employee's pneumonia or death. A generic description such as "bacterial," "viral" or "undetermined etiology" does NOT count Naming a pathogen as suspected, under investigation or not ruled out does NOT count Ruling out a pathogen without naming the cause does NOT count
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad"?
Markets currently price it at 3% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.