Will Ethiopia have an Ebola case in 2026? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Ethiopia have an Ebola case in 2026" at 6%, with 2 venues quoting at the same price. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 9¢ | 91¢ | 0.4¢ | $243 | $2K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 4¢ | 96¢ | 0.2¢ | $4K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia is officially reported after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed in Ethiopia — a citizen of Ethiopia diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed within Ethiopia do count. Resolution is based on the date of official confirmation, not symptom onset. Cases confirmed after Jan 1, 2027 do not qualify even if infection occurred earlier.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Ethiopia have an Ebola case in 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 6% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Ethiopia have an Ebola case in 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.