Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Canada, is at 13%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $295 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 13¢ reads as a 13% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
12 of these outcomes are priced on Kalshi too: the favourite is compared below, and each outcome links its own comparison.
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada compare | 13% | 13¢ | $42 | Trade |
| South Sudan compare | 35% | 35¢ | $0 | Trade |
| India compare | 19% | 19¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Kenya compare | 17% | 17¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Rwanda compare | 16% | 16¢ | $0 | Trade |
| United States compare | 14% | 14¢ | $0 | Trade |
| China compare | 13% | 13¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Republic of the Congo compare | 12% | 12¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Burundi compare | 12% | 12¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Somalia compare | – | – | $10 | Trade |
Show 3 more outcomes
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 13¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 35¢ | 65¢ | 1.1¢ | $0 | $2K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 31¢ | 69¢ | 1.5¢ | $6 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 13¢ for Canada right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
More health markets
Confirmed pneumonic plague case in Russia
Polymarket · resolves Oct 31, 2026
$10K in 24h on Polymarket
New pandemic in 2026
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$15K in 24h, both venues
FDA approves Retatrutide this year
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$3K in 24h on Polymarket
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
Polymarket · resolves Mar 31, 2027
$1K in 24h on Polymarket
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$959 in 24h on Polymarket
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$750 in 24h on Polymarket
Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?”?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Canada, is at 13%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.