Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026? Odds and prices
Trading on “Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026” has ended. The prices below are the last quoted; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Final prices by venue
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 100¢ | Settled Yes on this venue |
| Kalshi | 98¢ | Settled Yes on this venue |
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Kenya is officially reported after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed in Kenya — a citizen of Kenya diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed within Kenya do count. Resolution is based on the date of official confirmation, not symptom onset. Cases confirmed after Jan 1, 2027 do not qualify even if infection occurred earlier.
Where you can trade this
Nowhere now: trading has ended.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026"?
The question is over. The last prices are kept above as a record, not as odds to trade.
Where can I trade "Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026"?
Nowhere now: trading has ended. Polymarket and Kalshi listed it until it closed.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.