Polymarket 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Marine Le Pen, is at 92%. The market settles by Jun 30, 2027, and $4K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 92¢ reads as a 92% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: 2 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 92% | 92¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Marine Tondelier | 26% | 26¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Juan Branco | 11% | 11¢ | $560 | Trade |
| Sarah Knafo | 19% | 19¢ | $241 | Trade |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 65% | 65¢ | $183 | Trade |
| David Lisnard | 81% | 81¢ | $110 | Trade |
| Bruno Retailleau | 53% | 53¢ | $50 | Trade |
| Delphine Batho | 10% | 10¢ | $18 | Trade |
| Jordan Bardella | 13% | 13¢ | $17 | Trade |
| François Asselineau | 12% | 12¢ | $17 | Trade |
Show 30 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| François Hollande compare | 22% | 22¢ | $16 | Trade |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 82% | 82¢ | $9 | Trade |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 86% | 86¢ | $5 | Trade |
| Xavier Bertrand | 6% | 6¢ | $5 | Trade |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon compare | 93% | 93¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Fabien Roussel | 83% | 83¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Édouard Philippe | 80% | 80¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Éric Zemmour | 75% | 75¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Dominique de Villepin | 33% | 33¢ | $0 | Trade |
| François Ruffin | 21% | 21¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Gabriel Attal | 20% | 20¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Élisabeth Borne | 7% | 7¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Matthieu Pigasse | 7% | 7¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Michel Barnier | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Teddy Riner | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jean Castex | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| François Bayrou | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jean-Michel Fauvergue | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Carole Delga | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Karim Bouamrane | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Manuel Bompard | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Philippe de Villiers | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Olivier Faure | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Bally Bagayoko | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mathilde Panot | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Manuel Valls | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
6 more outcomes are priced on Polymarket: the full board on Polymarket (opens in a new tab).
Close-only for US residentsChance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 92¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 93¢cheapest to buy | 7¢ | free | $0 | $20K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 97¢ | 4¢ | 0.2¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 22¢cheapest to buy | 78¢ | free | $16 | $13K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 23¢ | 78¢ | 1.2¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Jun 30, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket legit? Our review covers safety, sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 92¢ for Marine Le Pen right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Marine Le Pen, is at 92%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.