Kalshi 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot odds
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Bruno Retailleau, is at 50%. The market settles by Jun 30, 2027, and $143 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 50¢ reads as a 50% chance. Polymarket lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
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Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket: 2 questions compared ↓
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 50% | 50¢ | $138 | Trade |
| Fabien Roussel | 80% | 80¢ | $5 | Trade |
| Marine Le Pen | 97% | 97¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon compare | 97% | 97¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 89% | 89¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Édouard Philippe | 86% | 86¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Éric Zemmour | 79% | 79¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 79% | 79¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jean Lassalle | 77% | 77¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 65% | 65¢ | $0 | Trade |
Show 13 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominique de Villepin | 32% | 32¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Marine Tondelier | 25% | 25¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Gabriel Attal | 25% | 25¢ | $0 | Trade |
| François Hollande compare | 23% | 23¢ | $0 | Trade |
| François Ruffin | 20% | 20¢ | $0 | Trade |
| François Asselineau | 15% | 15¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 8% | 8¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jordan Bardella | 8% | 8¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jérôme Guedj | 7% | 7¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Karim Bouamrane | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Gérald Darmanin | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Olivier Faure | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Clémentine Autain | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 50¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 93¢cheapest to buy | 8¢ | free | $0 | $20K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 97¢ | 4¢ | 0.2¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 22¢cheapest to buy | 79¢ | free | $16 | $13K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 23¢ | 77¢ | 1.2¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Will Bruno Retailleau appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Jun 30, 2027.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Is Kalshi legit? Our review covers safety, sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 50¢ for Bruno Retailleau right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Bruno Retailleau, is at 50%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.