Polymarket Brazil Presidential Election First Round odds
On Polymarket, Flavio Bolsonaro closed at 100%. Trading has closed; the result settles the contracts. A contract that closed at 100¢ pays $1 if that outcome is the result, and nothing if not. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Polymarket · final prices · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: 2 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flavio BolsonaroFinal compare | 100% | 100¢ | $2.0M |
| LulaFinal compare | 0% | 0¢ | $2.8M |
| Hertz DiasFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $13K |
| Veterinário Wilson GrassiFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $10K |
| SamaraFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $10K |
| Edmilson CostaFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $10K |
| Renan SantosFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
| Escritor Augusto CuryFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $1K |
| Rui Costa PimentaFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $5K |
| Ronaldo CaiadoFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $1K |
Show 3 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| ZemaFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $7 |
| Pablo MarçalFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $6 |
| Clariana BaraoFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $7 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 100¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. Trading has ended; these are the last prices each venue quoted.
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 100¢ | Settled: Yes |
| Kalshi | >99¢ | Settled: Yes |
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0¢ | Settled: No |
| Kalshi | <1¢ | Settled: No |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market settled
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Scheduled resolution: Oct 4, 2026.
More politics markets
Brazil Presidential election
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Oct 25, 2026
$5.8M in 24h, both venues
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · resolves Nov 3, 2026
$774K in 24h on Polymarket
What will Trump say this week?
Kalshi · resolves Oct 5, 2026
$701K in 24h on Kalshi
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Oct 27, 2026
$582K in 24h on Polymarket
Next French Presidential Election
Polymarket · resolves Apr 18, 2027
$550K in 24h on Polymarket
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power
Kalshi · resolves Feb 1, 2027
$528K in 24h on Kalshi
Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Brazil Presidential Election First Round?
On Polymarket, Flavio Bolsonaro closed at 100%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.