Polymarket Next French Presidential Election odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Marine Le Pen, at 45%. The market settles by Apr 18, 2027, and $548K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 45¢ reads as a 45% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 45% | 45¢ | $13K | Trade |
| Édouard Philippe | 19% | 19¢ | $20K | Trade |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12% | 12¢ | $23K | Trade |
| David Lisnard | 11% | 11¢ | $157K | Trade |
| François Hollande | 4% | 4¢ | $22K | Trade |
| Gabriel Attal | 2% | 2¢ | $6K | Trade |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 1% | 1¢ | $30K | Trade |
| Bruno Retailleau | 1% | 1¢ | $61K | Trade |
| Sarah Knafo | 1% | 1¢ | $26K | Trade |
| Éric Zemmour | 1% | 1¢ | $14K | Trade |
Show 30 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Lagarde | 1% | 1¢ | $46K | Trade |
| Dominique de Villepin | 1% | 1¢ | $25K | Trade |
| Jordan Bardella | 1% | 1¢ | $16K | Trade |
| Sébastien Lecornu | <1% | <1¢ | $20K | Trade |
| Marine Tondelier | <1% | <1¢ | $16K | Trade |
| François Ruffin | <1% | <1¢ | $16K | Trade |
| Karim Bouamrane | <1% | <1¢ | $15K | Trade |
| Olivier Faure | <1% | <1¢ | $13K | Trade |
| Jean Castex | <1% | <1¢ | $9K | Trade |
| Manuel Bompard | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Ségolène Royal | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Mathilde Panot | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Xavier Bertrand | – | – | $158 | Trade |
| François Bayrou | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| François Asselineau | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Élisabeth Borne | – | – | $4 | Trade |
| Michel Barnier | – | – | $2 | Trade |
| Clémentine Autain | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Carole Delga | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Fabien Roussel | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Clémence Guetté | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Valérie Pécresse | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Laurent Wauquiez | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Juan Branco | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Gérald Darmanin | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| François Baroin | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Yannick Jadot | – | – | $3 | Trade |
2 more outcomes are priced on Polymarket: the full board on Polymarket (opens in a new tab).
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 45¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Scheduled resolution: Apr 18, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 45¢ for Marine Le Pen right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Next French Presidential Election?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Marine Le Pen, at 45%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.