Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31: odds and prices
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? Currently priced by a single venue, so there is no cross-venue consensus to report yet; the venue's own page is a better source for that one number.
This question on Polymarket.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 52¢ | 48¢ | 1.0¢ | $106K | $59K | Trade → |
One venue is not a comparison. Only one venue quotes this question right now, so there is no second price to set it against.
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31"?
One venue currently prices it at 52%; no cross-venue consensus exists yet.
Where can I trade "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31"?
On Polymarket. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.