Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election" at 66%, with 2 venues quoting within 1 point of each other. The contract settles by Nov 28, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 66¢cheapest to buy | 35¢ | 0.9¢ | $81K | $463K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 67¢ | 34¢ | 1.6¢ | $10K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
Full settlement wording
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
If Chiang Wan-an wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election"?
Markets currently price it at 66% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.