Will Markwayne Mullin leave the Trump administration before 2027? Odds and prices
"Will Markwayne Mullin leave the Trump administration before 2027" is priced at 17% on Polymarket and 3% on Kalshi, 14 points apart: the venues disagree, so 10% is their average, not a consensus. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 17¢ | 84¢ | 0.6¢ | $13 | $11K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 3¢cheapest to buy | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | $280 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026,…
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
If Markwayne Mullin is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being removed from office) after Nov 6, 2026, then…
If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A person’s announcement of their intent to leave and their departure count as one occurrence, at the earlier of the two. A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position. Susie Wiles' departure as Chief of Staff, announced on Nov 6, 2026, occurred before Issuance and does not count. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well as the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Markwayne Mullin leave the Trump administration before 2027"?
The venues disagree: 17% on Polymarket and 3% on Kalshi. The 10% shown is their average; the gap often comes from settlement rules worded differently, compared on this page.
Where can I trade "Will Markwayne Mullin leave the Trump administration before 2027"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.