Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Pete Hegseth, is at 44%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $78K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 44¢ reads as a 44% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
11 of these outcomes are priced on Kalshi too: the favourite is compared below, and each outcome links its own comparison.
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth compare | 44% | 44¢ | $45K | Trade |
| Marco Rubio | 12% | 12¢ | $9K | Trade |
| Stephen Miller | 4% | 4¢ | $6K | Trade |
| Howard Lutnick compare | 23% | 23¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. compare | 16% | 16¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Kash Patel compare | 22% | 22¢ | $3K | Trade |
| John Ratcliffe compare | 11% | 11¢ | $2K | Trade |
| David Sacks | 7% | 7¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Scott Bessent compare | 7% | 7¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Tom Homan compare | 9% | 9¢ | $1K | Trade |
Show 11 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristi Noem | 18% | 18¢ | $711 | Trade |
| Dan Scavino | 6% | 6¢ | $61 | Trade |
| Markwayne Mullin compare | 17% | 17¢ | $24 | Trade |
| Russell Vought compare | 9% | 9¢ | $1 | Trade |
| Lee Zeldin compare | 8% | 8¢ | $1 | Trade |
| Pam BondiFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| Susie WilesFinal compare | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| Tulsi GabbardFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| Karoline LeavittFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemerFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| Dan BonginoFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 44¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 44¢cheapest to buy | 57¢ | 1.0¢ | $45K | $67K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 51¢ | 49¢ | 1.7¢ | $295 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 44¢ for Pete Hegseth right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?”?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Pete Hegseth, is at 44%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.