Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination" at 3%, with 3 venues quoting within 2 points of each other. The contract settles by Nov 7, 2028; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | free | $78K | $780K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 4¢ | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | 0.2¢ | $5K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will settle to Yes if Ted Cruz wins and accepts the Republican Party nomination to contest the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
Full settlement wording
This market will settle to Yes if Ted Cruz wins and accepts the Republican Party nomination to contest the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Outcome sourced from the Republican Party.
Any replacement of the Republican Party nominee before election day will not affect the settlement of this market.
If Ted Cruz wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination"?
Markets currently price it at 3% across 3 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination"?
On Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi. Polymarket US takes US residents only; from the US, polymarket.com is close-only. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.