Polymarket Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is J.D. Vance, at 44%. The market settles by Nov 7, 2028, and $400K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 44¢ reads as a 44% chance. Polymarket US and Kalshi list it too, and we compare the prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Also on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket US and Kalshi: 3 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 44% | 44¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Marco Rubio | 16% | 16¢ | $31K | Trade |
| Ron DeSantis | 3% | 3¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Tucker Carlson | 3% | 3¢ | $314 | Trade |
| Ted Cruz compare | 2% | 2¢ | $78K | Trade |
| Donald Trump | 2% | 2¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 2% | 2¢ | $194 | Trade |
| Ivanka Trump | 1% | 1¢ | $21 | Trade |
| Thomas Massie | 1% | 1¢ | $42 | Trade |
| Brian Kemp | 1% | 1¢ | $432 | Trade |
Show 30 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | <1¢ | $571 | Trade |
| Josh Hawley | <1% | <1¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Tom Cotton | <1% | <1¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | <1% | <1¢ | $259 | Trade |
| Rand Paul | <1% | <1¢ | $145 | Trade |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | <1% | <1¢ | $42 | Trade |
| Greg Abbott | <1% | <1¢ | $513 | Trade |
| Katie Britt | <1% | <1¢ | $180 | Trade |
| Glenn Youngkin | <1% | <1¢ | $12 | Trade |
| Candace Owens | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Eric Trump | <1% | <1¢ | $16 | Trade |
| Doug Burgum | <1% | <1¢ | $121K | Trade |
| John McEntee | <1% | <1¢ | $71K | Trade |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | <1% | <1¢ | $8K | Trade |
| Joe Kent | <1% | <1¢ | $915 | Trade |
| Mike Pence | <1% | <1¢ | $596 | Trade |
| Tulsi Gabbard | <1% | <1¢ | $585 | Trade |
| Kristi Noem | <1% | <1¢ | $403 | Trade |
| Elise Stefanik | <1% | <1¢ | $293 | Trade |
| Byron Donalds | <1% | <1¢ | $288 | Trade |
| Nikki Haley compare | <1% | <1¢ | $248 | Trade |
| Elon Musk | <1% | <1¢ | $145 | Trade |
| Steve Bannon | <1% | <1¢ | $92 | Trade |
| John N. Kennedy | <1% | <1¢ | $5 | Trade |
| John Thune | – | – | $70K | Trade |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders compare | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Tom Brady | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Kim Kardashian | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Matt Gaetz | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Erika Kirk | – | – | $0 | Trade |
3 more outcomes are priced on Polymarket: the full board on Polymarket (opens in a new tab).
Close-only for US residentsChance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 44¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on each venue: Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | free | $78K | $780K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 4¢ | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | 0.2¢ | $5K | – | Trade → |
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢ | >99¢ | free | $0 | $518K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | 99¢ | <0.1¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢ | >99¢ | free | $248 | $1.4M | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | <1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $458 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 7, 2028.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 44¢ for J.D. Vance right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Republican Presidential Nominee 2028?
On Polymarket, the favourite is J.D. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. It trades on Polymarket US and Kalshi. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 3 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.