Kalshi 2028 Republican presidential nominee odds
On Kalshi, the favourite is J.D. Vance, at 36%. The market settles by Nov 7, 2028, and $811K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 36¢ reads as a 36% chance. Polymarket and Polymarket US list it too, and we compare the prices below.
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Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket and Polymarket US: 3 questions compared ↓
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 36% | 36¢ | $88K | Trade |
| Marco Rubio | 18% | 18¢ | $23K | Trade |
| Ron DeSantis | 16% | 16¢ | $43K | Trade |
| John McEntee | 4% | 4¢ | $68K | Trade |
| Ted Cruz compare | 3% | 3¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Glenn Youngkin | 3% | 3¢ | $10K | Trade |
| Tucker Carlson | 3% | 3¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Brian Kemp | 2% | 2¢ | $26K | Trade |
| Thomas Massie | 2% | 2¢ | $17K | Trade |
| Donald J. Trump | 2% | 2¢ | $3K | Trade |
Show 30 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 1% | 1¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Josh Hawley | 1% | 1¢ | $469 | Trade |
| Ivanka Trump | 1% | 1¢ | $30K | Trade |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 1% | 1¢ | $509 | Trade |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders compare | 1% | 1¢ | $85K | Trade |
| Rand Paul | 1% | 1¢ | $30K | Trade |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Tom Cotton | 1% | 1¢ | $31K | Trade |
| Nikki Haley compare | 1% | 1¢ | $13K | Trade |
| Byron Donalds | 1% | 1¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Joe Kent | <1% | <1¢ | $65K | Trade |
| Chris Christie | <1% | <1¢ | $10K | Trade |
| Katie Britt | <1% | <1¢ | $5K | Trade |
| Mike Pence | <1% | <1¢ | $236 | Trade |
| Tulsi Gabbard | <1% | <1¢ | $6K | Trade |
| Tim Scott | <1% | <1¢ | $3K | Trade |
| John Kennedy | <1% | <1¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | <1¢ | $100 | Trade |
| Doug Burgum | <1% | <1¢ | $36K | Trade |
| Dave McCormick | <1% | <1¢ | $26K | Trade |
| Steve Bannon | <1% | <1¢ | $15K | Trade |
| Elise Stefanik | <1% | <1¢ | $10K | Trade |
| Greg Abbott | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Spencer Pratt | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Candace Owens | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mike Pompeo | <1% | <1¢ | $50K | Trade |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | <1% | <1¢ | $5K | Trade |
| Chris Sununu | <1% | <1¢ | $5K | Trade |
| John Thune | <1% | <1¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Elon Musk | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
13 more outcomes are priced on Kalshi: the full board on Kalshi (opens in a new tab).
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 36¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on these questions
The same questions on each venue: Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 3¢ | 97¢ | 0.1¢ | $2K | $788K | Trade → |
| Polymarket US$25 bonusUS residents only | 3¢ | 98¢ | 0.2¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 3¢ | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | $4K | – | Trade → |
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢cheapest to buy | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $1K | $484K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | 99¢ | <0.1¢ | $85K | – | Trade → |
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢cheapest to buy | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $44K | $546K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | 99¢ | <0.1¢ | $13K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Nov 7, 2028.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Is Kalshi safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 36¢ for J.D. Vance right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on 2028 Republican presidential nominee?
On Kalshi, the favourite is J.D. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. It trades on Polymarket and Polymarket US. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. The 3 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.