Polymarket Erste Bank Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Daniil Medvedev, at 78%. The market settles by Nov 3, 2026, and $29K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 78¢ reads as a 78% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | 78% | 78¢ | $29K | Trade |
| Set 1 Winner · Daniil Medvedev | 72% | 72¢ | $47 | Trade |
| Total Sets: O/U 2.5 · Under 2.5 | 68% | 68¢ | $14 | Trade |
| Set Handicap +/-1.5 · Daniil Medvedev -1.5 | 56% | 56¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Match O/U 21.5 · Under | 53% | 53¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Game Spread +/-4.5 · Daniel Merida Aguilar +4.5 | 55% | 55¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Match O/U 22.5 · Under | 60% | 60¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Match O/U 23.5 · Under | 62% | 62¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Set 1 O/U 10.5 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Completed Match | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Show 6 more outcomes
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 78¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Daniil Medvedev in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Daniil Medvedev.
This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 3, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 78¢ for Daniil Medvedev right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Erste Bank Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Daniil Medvedev, at 78%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.