Erste Bank Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe odds, Oct 27
Markets price Lorenzo Musetti 48%, Frances Tiafoe 52%, with 2 venues quoting each result. Starts Tue, Oct 27, 5:00am ET. Each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This match on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Lorenzo Musetti | Frances Tiafoe | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 49¢ | 52¢cheapest to buy | 1.2¢ | $9K | $62K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 49¢ | 53¢ | 1.7¢ | $28K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Musetti and Frances Tiafoe in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Musetti and Frances Tiafoe in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Frances Tiafoe.
This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Lorenzo Musetti.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Lorenzo Musetti wins the Musetti vs Tiafoe professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Vienna Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Musetti vs Tiafoe professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Vienna Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Erste Bank Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe"?
Markets price Lorenzo Musetti 48%, Frances Tiafoe 52% across 2 venues: market-implied probabilities rather than forecasts.
Where can I trade "Erste Bank Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.