Polymarket Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi odds
On Polymarket, Luciano Darderi closed at 100%. Trading has closed; the result settles the contracts. A contract that closed at 100¢ pays $1 if that outcome is the result, and nothing if not. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · final prices · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luciano DarderiFinal compare | 100% | 100¢ | $277K |
| Set 1 Winner · Luciano DarderiFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $2K |
| Set 2 Winner · Luciano DarderiFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $529 |
| Set 1 O/U 8.5 · OverFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $55 |
| Set Handicap +/-1.5 · Luciano Darderi +1.5Final | 100% | 100¢ | $551 |
| Match O/U 23.5 · UnderFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $314 |
| Match O/U 21.5 · UnderFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $202 |
| Match O/U 22.5 · UnderFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $124 |
| Total Sets: O/U 2.5 · Under 2.5Final | 100% | 100¢ | $28 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 100¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this match
The same match on both venues. Trading has ended; these are the last prices each venue quoted.
| Venue | Luciano Darderi | Matteo Arnaldi | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 100¢ | 0¢ | Settled: Luciano Darderi |
| Kalshi | 99¢ | 1¢ | Settled: Luciano Darderi |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market settled
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Luciano Darderi and Matteo Arnaldi in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Luciano Darderi' if Luciano Darderi advances against Matteo Arnaldi.
This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Luciano Darderi.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 3, 2026.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi?
On Polymarket, Luciano Darderi closed at 100%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.