Kalshi market

Kalshi League Phase Top 8 Finishers odds

On Kalshi, the busiest line, Inter, is at 27%. The market settles by Jan 27, 2027, and $139 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 27¢ reads as a 27% chance. Polymarket and Polymarket US list it too, and we compare the prices below.

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Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page

Kalshi · odds · updated

Inter27%
Barcelona85%
Sporting CP18%
PSG87%
Real Madrid86%

All 36 outcomes ↓

Also priced on Polymarket and Polymarket US: 4 questions compared ↓

$139
24h volume on Kalshi
$7K
total volume on Kalshi
$5K
open interest
Jan 27, 2027
settles

Kalshi odds on every outcome

Kalshi odds on each outcome of League Phase Top 8 Finishers
OutcomeChanceYes price24h volume
Inter compare 27%27¢$49Trade
Barcelona compare 85%85¢$5Trade
Sporting CP compare 18%18¢$1Trade
PSG87%87¢$0Trade
Real Madrid compare 86%86¢$0Trade
Bayern Munich63%63¢$0Trade
Manchester United43%43¢$0Trade
Manchester City41%41¢$0Trade
Napoli37%37¢$0Trade
Dortmund29%29¢$0Trade
Show 26 more outcomes
Kalshi odds on each outcome of League Phase Top 8 Finishers
OutcomeChanceYes price24h volume
Como22%22¢$0Trade
Lille11%11¢$0Trade
Club Brugge3%3¢$0Trade
Bodoe/Glimt1%1¢$84Trade
Arsenal––$0Trade
Liverpool––$0Trade
Aston Villa––$0Trade
Stuttgart––$0Trade
Atletico––$0Trade
Real Betis––$0Trade
AEK Athens––$0Trade
Porto––$0Trade
Galatasaray––$0Trade
LASK––$0Trade
Fenerbahce––$0Trade
Feyenoord––$0Trade
PSV Eindhoven––$0Trade
Leipzig––$0Trade
Lens––$0Trade
Roma––$0Trade
Sabah Masazir––$0Trade
Shakhtar––$0Trade
Slavia Prague––$0Trade
Slovan Bratislava––$0Trade
Viking––$0Trade
Villarreal––$0Trade

Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 27¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.

Kalshi vs Polymarket on these questions

The same questions on each venue: Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.

Will Real Madrid finish top 8 in UCL league phase?

Yes: Will Real Madrid finish top 8 in UCL league phase?: price on each venue, the fee, 24h volume and liquidity, with a link to trade
VenueYesNoFee24h volumeLiquidity
PolymarketClose-only for US residents96¢4¢0.2¢$0$4KTrade →
Polymarket USUS residents only83¢18¢1.0¢––Trade →
Kalshi$50 bonus86¢14¢0.8¢$0–Trade →
Updated Fee: the taker fee on one contract at the price shown, as each venue publishes it; Polymarket’s is its international book, and Polymarket US charges its own (0.0695 × price × (1 − price) to takers, nothing to makers).

Will Barcelona finish top 8 in UCL league phase?

Yes: Will Barcelona finish top 8 in UCL league phase?: price on each venue, the fee, 24h volume and liquidity, with a link to trade
VenueYesNoFee24h volumeLiquidity
PolymarketClose-only for US residents81¢20¢0.8¢$53$2KTrade →
Polymarket USUS residents only77¢cheapest to buy24¢1.2¢––Trade →
Kalshi$50 bonus85¢15¢0.9¢$5–Trade →
Updated Fee: the taker fee on one contract at the price shown, as each venue publishes it; Polymarket’s is its international book, and Polymarket US charges its own (0.0695 × price × (1 − price) to takers, nothing to makers).

Will Inter Milan finish top 8 in UCL league phase?

Yes: Will Inter Milan finish top 8 in UCL league phase?: price on each venue, the fee, 24h volume and liquidity, with a link to trade
VenueYesNoFee24h volumeLiquidity
PolymarketClose-only for US residents20¢cheapest to buy80¢0.8¢$86$4KTrade →
Kalshi$50 bonus27¢73¢1.4¢$49–Trade →
Updated Fee: the taker fee on one contract at the price shown, as each venue publishes it; Polymarket’s is its international book.

Will Sporting CP finish top 8 in UCL league phase?

Yes: Will Sporting CP finish top 8 in UCL league phase?: price on each venue, the fee, 24h volume and liquidity, with a link to trade
VenueYesNoFee24h volumeLiquidity
PolymarketClose-only for US residents11¢90¢0.5¢$65$2KTrade →
Polymarket USUS residents only6¢cheapest to buy95¢0.4¢––Trade →
Kalshi$50 bonus18¢83¢1.0¢$1–Trade →
Updated Fee: the taker fee on one contract at the price shown, as each venue publishes it; Polymarket’s is its international book, and Polymarket US charges its own (0.0695 × price × (1 − price) to takers, nothing to makers).

How the odds have moved

Kalshi · Inter
27%▲ 3.0 pts since Oct 18
Yes price
Oct 1818% – 34% scaleOct 25

Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.

How this market resolves

The market asks: “Will Inter finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)

Scheduled resolution: Jan 27, 2027.

How to trade this market on Kalshi

  1. Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
  2. Open a Kalshi account. Is Kalshi safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
  3. Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 27¢ for Inter right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
  4. Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.

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Common questions

What are the Kalshi odds on League Phase Top 8 Finishers?

On Kalshi, the busiest line, Inter, is at 27%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.

How does this market resolve?

By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.

Is this question on Polymarket too?

Yes. It trades on Polymarket and Polymarket US. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. The 4 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.

Can I trade this market in my state?

In most states, yes, on Kalshi. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.

How accurate are Kalshi odds?

Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?

A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.