Polymarket MLS: 2026 Golden Boot odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Lionel Messi, at 81%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $780 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 81¢ reads as an 81% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 81% | 81¢ | $775 | Trade |
| Milan Iloski | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Petar Musa | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Kévin Denkey | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Brian White | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Sam Surridge | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Tai Baribo | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Denis Bouanga | <1% | <1¢ | $5 | Trade |
| Dejan Joveljić | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Show 18 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tadeo Allende | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Germán Berterame | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Albert Rusnák | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Prince-Osei Owusu | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Hugo Cuypers | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Evander | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Hany Mukhtar | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Martín Ojeda | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Anders Dreyer | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Alonso Martínez | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Louis Munteanu | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Cheikh Sabaly | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Philip Zinckernagel | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Danny Musovski | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Idan Toklomati | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Djordje Mihailovic | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Diego Rossi | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Marco Pašalić | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 81¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 MLS Golden Boot.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLS rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 21, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 81¢ for Lionel Messi right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on MLS: 2026 Golden Boot?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Lionel Messi, at 81%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.