Polymarket Erste Bank Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Frances Tiafoe, at 52%. The market settles by Nov 3, 2026, and $9K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 52¢ reads as a 52% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe compare | 52% | 52¢ | $9K | Trade |
| Match O/U 23.5 · Under | 56% | 56¢ | $20 | Trade |
| Match O/U 22.5 · Over | 51% | 51¢ | $6 | Trade |
| Set 1 O/U 8.5 · Over | 85% | 85¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Match O/U 21.5 · Over | 61% | 61¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Set 1 Winner · Frances Tiafoe | 51% | 51¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Game Spread +/-0.5 · Frances Tiafoe +0.5 | 53% | 53¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Total Sets: O/U 2.5 · Under 2.5 | 62% | 62¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Set 1 O/U 10.5 · Under | 65% | 65¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Set Handicap +/-1.5 · Lorenzo Musetti +1.5 | 68% | 68¢ | $0 | Trade |
Show 6 more outcomes
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 52¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this match
The same match on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Lorenzo Musetti | Frances Tiafoe | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 49¢ | 52¢cheapest to buy | 1.2¢ | $9K | $62K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 49¢ | 53¢ | 1.7¢ | $29K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Musetti and Frances Tiafoe in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Frances Tiafoe.
This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Lorenzo Musetti.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 3, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 52¢ for Frances Tiafoe right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
More sports markets
Erste Bank Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev
Polymarket · resolves Nov 3, 2026
$29K in 24h on Polymarket
Swiss Indoors Basel: Novak Djokovic vs Ugo Humbert
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Nov 3, 2026
$20K in 24h, both venues
Swiss Indoors Basel: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Arthur Fils
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Nov 3, 2026
$10K in 24h, both venues
Erste Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Brandon Nakashima
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Nov 3, 2026
$8K in 24h, both venues
Seoul: Beibit Zhukayev vs Coleman Wong
Polymarket · resolves Nov 3, 2026
$7K in 24h on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open: Jurij Rodionov vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Nov 3, 2026
$12K in 24h, both venues
Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Erste Bank Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Frances Tiafoe, at 52%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.