Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Justin Gaethje, at 91%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $816 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 91¢ reads as a 91% chance. Polymarket US lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket US: 2 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje compare | 91% | 91¢ | $396 | Trade |
| Arman Tsarukyan compare | 8% | 8¢ | $420 | Trade |
| Ilia Topuria | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Paddy Pimblett | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Max Holloway | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Benoît Saint Denis | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Charles Oliveira | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Mauricio Ruffy | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Renato Moicano | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Dan Hooker | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Show 2 more outcomes
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 91¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 91¢ | 9¢ | 0.2¢ | $396 | $5K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 82¢cheapest to buy | 19¢ | 1.0¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 8¢cheapest to buy | 92¢ | 0.2¢ | $420 | $5K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 9¢ | 92¢ | 0.5¢ | – | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 91¢ for Justin Gaethje right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?”?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Justin Gaethje, at 91%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Not on Kalshi yet: it trades on Polymarket US. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.