Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Ciryl Gane, at 67%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $2K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 67¢ reads as a 67% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: 4 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane compare | 67% | 67¢ | $393 | Trade |
| Josh Hokit compare | 30% | 30¢ | $168 | Trade |
| Alex Pereira compare | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Tom Aspinall compare | <1% | <1¢ | $14 | Trade |
| Marcin Tybura | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Curtis Blaydes | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Alexander Volkov | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Derrick Lewis | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Sergei Pavlovich | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Show 5 more outcomes
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 67¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 67¢cheapest to buy | 34¢ | 0.7¢ | $393 | $2K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 70¢ | 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $716 | – | Trade → |
Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 30¢cheapest to buy | 71¢ | 0.6¢ | $168 | $3K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 32¢ | 69¢ | 1.5¢ | $2K | – | Trade → |
Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $0 | $3K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $14 | $4K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 67¢ for Ciryl Gane right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?”?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Ciryl Gane, at 67%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 4 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.