Polymarket Best Chinese AI Company end of October odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Xiaomi, at 52%. The market settles by Oct 31, 2026, and $40K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 52¢ reads as a 52% chance. Polymarket US lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket US: 3 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xiaomi | 52% | 52¢ | $7K | Trade |
| Moonshot | 38% | 38¢ | $8K | Trade |
| Alibaba compare | 9% | 9¢ | $5K | Trade |
| Z.ai | 1% | 1¢ | $3K | Trade |
| DeepSeek | 1% | 1¢ | $3K | Trade |
| ByteDance compare | <1% | <1¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Baidu | <1% | <1¢ | $3K | Trade |
| MiniMax compare | <1% | <1¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Tencent | <1% | <1¢ | $3K | Trade |
| StepFun | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Show 1 more outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meituan | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 52¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 9¢ | 92¢ | free | $5K | $6K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 6¢cheapest to buy | 95¢ | 0.4¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢cheapest to buy | >99¢ | free | $3K | $9K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 2¢ | 99¢ | 0.1¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢cheapest to buy | >99¢ | free | $4K | $6K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 2¢ | 99¢ | 0.1¢ | – | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Scheduled resolution: Oct 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket legit? Our review covers safety, sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 52¢ for Xiaomi right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Xiaomi, at 52%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Not on Kalshi yet: it trades on Polymarket US. The 3 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.