Which company has the best AI model end of October? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Google, at 65%. The market settles by Oct 31, 2026, and $90K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 65¢ reads as a 65% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 65¢ | $13K | Trade | |
| Anthropic | 32% | 32¢ | $6K | Trade |
| OpenAI | 1% | 1¢ | $9K | Trade |
| Meta | <1% | <1¢ | $25K | Trade |
| SpaceXAI | <1% | <1¢ | $5K | Trade |
| Alibaba | – | – | $30K | Trade |
| DeepSeek | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Moonshot | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Z.ai | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Tencent | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Show 11 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ByteDance | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Baidu | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Xiaomi | – | – | $2K | Trade |
| Nvidia | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Meituan | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Mistral | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Amazon | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Microsoft | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| MiniMax | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Thinky | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| StepFun | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 65¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Scheduled resolution: Oct 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 65¢ for Google right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Which company has the best AI model end of October?”?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Google, at 65%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.