Polymarket GPT Astra 6.1+ released odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, October 16, is at 4%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $17K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 4¢ reads as a 4% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: 3 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 4¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 13¢ | 87¢ | 0.4¢ | $5K | $7K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 8¢cheapest to buy | 92¢ | 0.5¢ | $7K | – | Trade → |
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 4¢cheapest to buy | 96¢ | 0.1¢ | $5K | $6K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 5¢ | 95¢ | 0.3¢ | $3K | – | Trade → |
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 4¢ | 96¢ | 0.1¢ | $1K | $9K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 1¢ | 99¢ | <0.1¢ | $7K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Scheduled resolution: Oct 16, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 4¢ for October 9 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on GPT Astra 6.1+ released?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, October 16, is at 4%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 3 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.