Polymarket market

Polymarket GPT Astra 6.1+ released odds

On Polymarket, the busiest line, October 31, is at 12%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $9K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 12¢ reads as a 12% chance.

Trade on Polymarket

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Polymarket · odds · updated

November 3051%
December 3185%
October 3112%
October 90%
October 160%

All 8 outcomes, in order ↓

$9K
24h volume on Polymarket
$385K
total volume on Polymarket
5
open of 8 outcomes
Dec 31, 2026
settles

Polymarket odds on every outcome

Polymarket odds on each outcome of GPT Astra 6.1+ released
OutcomeChanceYes price24h volume
December 1575%75¢$184Trade
November 1538%38¢$586Trade
November 3051%51¢$2KTrade
December 3185%85¢$447Trade
October 3112%12¢$6KTrade
October 9Final0%0¢$0
October 16Final0%0¢$0
October 23Final0%0¢$0
Close-only for US residents

Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 75¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How the odds have moved

Polymarket · October 31
12%▼ 26.5 pts since Oct 19
Yes price
Oct 197% – 38% scaleOct 26

Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.

How this market resolves

Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.

Show the full rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Scheduled resolution: Oct 31, 2026.

How to trade this market on Polymarket

  1. Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
  2. Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
  3. Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 75¢ for December 15 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
  4. Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.

Common questions

What are the Polymarket odds on GPT Astra 6.1+ released?

On Polymarket, the busiest line, October 31, is at 12%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.

How does this market resolve?

By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.

Is this question on Kalshi too?

We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.

Can I trade this market in my state?

In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?

A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.