Polymarket market

When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? Polymarket odds

On Polymarket, the favourite is November 16–November 22, at 42%. The market settles by Jan 31, 2027, and $10K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 42¢ reads as a 42% chance.

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Polymarket · odds · updated

November 16–November 2242%
November 23–November 2923%
November 30–December 615%
December 14–December 207%
November 9–November 153%

All 16 outcomes ↓

$10K
24h volume on Polymarket
$164K
total volume on Polymarket
13
open of 16 outcomes
Jan 31, 2027
settles

Polymarket odds on every outcome

Polymarket odds on each outcome of When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?
OutcomeChanceYes price24h volume
November 16–November 2242%42¢$5KTrade
November 23–November 2923%23¢$798Trade
November 30–December 615%15¢$447Trade
December 14–December 207%7¢$143Trade
November 9–November 153%3¢$3KTrade
December 7–December 132%2¢$127Trade
No release by January 311%1¢$214Trade
December 21–December 271%1¢$97Trade
January 25–January 311%1¢$125Trade
January 11–January 171%1¢$71Trade
Show 6 more outcomes
Polymarket odds on each outcome of When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?
OutcomeChanceYes price24h volume
January 18–January 241%1¢$245Trade
December 28–January 31%1¢$0Trade
January 4–January 10<1%<1¢$232Trade
November 2–November 8Final0%0¢$0
October 26–November 1Final0%0¢$0
Prior to October 26Final0%0¢$0
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Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 42¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How the odds have moved

Polymarket · November 16–November 22
42%▲ 22.7 pts since Nov 8
Yes price
Nov 811% – 66% scaleNov 15

Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.

How this market resolves

Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.

Show the full rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Scheduled resolution: Nov 22, 2026.

How to trade this market on Polymarket

  1. Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
  2. Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
  3. Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 42¢ for November 16–November 22 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
  4. Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.

Common questions

What are the Polymarket odds on “When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?”?

On Polymarket, the favourite is November 16–November 22, at 42%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.

How does this market resolve?

By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.

Is this question on Kalshi too?

We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.

Can I trade this market in my state?

In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?

A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.