Polymarket market

Polymarket Next GPT Terra (5.7+) released on... odds

On Polymarket, the favourite is October 29, at 21%. The market settles by Nov 30, 2026, and $7K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 21¢ reads as a 21% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.

Trade on Polymarket

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Polymarket · odds · updated

October 2921%
No release by November 3017%
November 1314%
October 2711%
November 511%

All 40 outcomes ↓

$7K
24h volume on Polymarket
$27K
total volume on Polymarket
37
open of 40 outcomes
Nov 30, 2026
settles

Polymarket odds on every outcome

Polymarket odds on each outcome of Next GPT Terra (5.7+) released on...
OutcomeChanceYes price24h volume
October 2921%21¢$837Trade
No release by November 3017%17¢$1KTrade
November 1314%14¢$1KTrade
October 2711%11¢$43Trade
November 511%11¢$426Trade
November 239%9¢$88Trade
November 308%8¢$170Trade
October 285%5¢$40Trade
November 204%4¢$116Trade
November 144%4¢$141Trade
Show 30 more outcomes
Polymarket odds on each outcome of Next GPT Terra (5.7+) released on...
OutcomeChanceYes price24h volume
November 274%4¢$45Trade
November 214%4¢$101Trade
October 303%3¢$261Trade
November 113%3¢$98Trade
November 13%3¢$833Trade
November 292%2¢$20Trade
November 192%2¢$149Trade
October 261%1¢$142Trade
November 61%1¢$20Trade
October 311%1¢$195Trade
November 101%1¢$20Trade
November 261%1¢$20Trade
November 121%1¢$20Trade
November 81%1¢$86Trade
November 71%1¢$20Trade
November 41%1¢$20Trade
November 91%1¢$20Trade
November 181%1¢$20Trade
November 161%1¢$20Trade
November 281%1¢$20Trade
November 171%1¢$20Trade
November 21%1¢$20Trade
November 251%1¢$20Trade
November 151%1¢$20Trade
November 241%1¢$20Trade
November 31%1¢$20Trade
November 221%1¢$20Trade
October 25––$112Trade
On or prior to October 23Final0%0¢$0
October 24Final0%0¢$58
Close-only for US residents

Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 21¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How the odds have moved

Polymarket · October 29
21%▼ 4.0 pts since Oct 22
Yes price
Oct 2210% – 27% scaleOct 26

Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.

How this market resolves

Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.

Show the full rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Scheduled resolution: Oct 29, 2026.

How to trade this market on Polymarket

  1. Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
  2. Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
  3. Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 21¢ for October 29 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
  4. Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.

Common questions

What are the Polymarket odds on Next GPT Terra (5.7+) released on...?

On Polymarket, the favourite is October 29, at 21%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.

How does this market resolve?

By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.

Is this question on Kalshi too?

We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.

Can I trade this market in my state?

In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?

A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.