Polymarket market

Polymarket Next Mythos Model (5.3+) made available odds

On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 31, is at 28%. The market settles by Feb 28, 2027, and $1K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 28¢ reads as a 28% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.

Trade on Polymarket

Close-only for US residents

Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page

Polymarket · odds · updated

February 2867%
January 3163%
December 3128%

Also priced on Kalshi: compare both

$1K
24h volume on Polymarket
$1K
total volume on Polymarket
3
open of 3 outcomes
Feb 28, 2027
settles

Polymarket odds on every outcome

Polymarket odds on each outcome of Next Mythos Model (5.3+) made available
OutcomeChanceYes price24h volume
February 2867%67¢$125Trade
January 3163%63¢$31Trade
December 31 compare 28%28¢$1KTrade
Close-only for US residents

Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 67¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.

Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question

The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.

Yes: Next Mythos Model (5.3+) released by December 31, 2026?: price on each venue, the fee, 24h volume and liquidity, with a link to trade
VenueYesNoFee24h volumeLiquidity
PolymarketClose-only for US residents28¢72¢0.8¢$1K$652Trade →
Kalshi$50 bonus6¢cheapest to buy95¢0.4¢$384–Trade →
Updated Fee: the taker fee on one contract at the price shown, as each venue publishes it; Polymarket’s is its international book.

Full comparison

How the odds have moved

Polymarket · December 31
28%▼ 22.0 pts since Nov 14
Yes price
Nov 1410% – 51% scaleNov 15

Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.

How this market resolves

Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.

Show the full rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Mythos model (5.3+) is released between market creation and the specified date (ET), as described below. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Mythos" and be designated as version 5.3 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.3 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Mythos 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.2 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Mythos 6, while models whose name does not include "Mythos" or which retain a version designation below 5.3, such as Claude Mythos 5.2 or Claude Fable 5.2, will not qualify.

A qualifying model will be considered released once Anthropic officially announces its release and makes it available to external users, including where access is limited to organizations approved through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs (such as the Cyber Verification Program or Project Glasswing), as was the case for Claude Mythos 5.2, released November 9, 2026. General public availability is not required. Internal testing, or access granted only to pre-release testers or evaluators without an official release announcement, will not qualify, and an announcement of future availability will not count until the model is actually available to such users.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.

How to trade this market on Polymarket

  1. Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
  2. Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
  3. Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 67¢ for February 28 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
  4. Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
Close-only for US residents

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Common questions

What are the Polymarket odds on Next Mythos Model (5.3+) made available?

On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 31, is at 28%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.

How does this market resolve?

By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.

Is this question on Kalshi too?

Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.

Can I trade this market in my state?

In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?

A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.