Polymarket Next Mythos Model (5.3+) made available odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 31, is at 28%. The market settles by Feb 28, 2027, and $1K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 28¢ reads as a 28% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 67¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 28¢ | 72¢ | 0.8¢ | $1K | $652 | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 6¢cheapest to buy | 95¢ | 0.4¢ | $384 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Mythos model (5.3+) is released between market creation and the specified date (ET), as described below. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Mythos" and be designated as version 5.3 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.3 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Mythos 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.2 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Mythos 6, while models whose name does not include "Mythos" or which retain a version designation below 5.3, such as Claude Mythos 5.2 or Claude Fable 5.2, will not qualify.
A qualifying model will be considered released once Anthropic officially announces its release and makes it available to external users, including where access is limited to organizations approved through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs (such as the Cyber Verification Program or Project Glasswing), as was the case for Claude Mythos 5.2, released November 9, 2026. General public availability is not required. Internal testing, or access granted only to pre-release testers or evaluators without an official release announcement, will not qualify, and an announcement of future availability will not count until the model is actually available to such users.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 67¢ for February 28 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Next Mythos Model (5.3+) made available?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 31, is at 28%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.
