Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026? Odds and prices
Trading on “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026” has ended: No. The prices below are the last quoted; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Final prices by venue
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0¢ | Settled: No |
| Kalshi | 1¢ | Settled: No |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
If Google releases next Gemini Pro model before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Where you can trade this
Nowhere now: trading has ended.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026"?
No won. The last prices are kept above as a record, not as odds to trade.
Where can I trade "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026"?
Nowhere now: trading has ended. Polymarket and Kalshi listed it until it closed.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.