What will the next Muse model family be named? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Muse Fire, at 18%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $7K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 18¢ reads as an 18% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 18¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the model family name of the next model Meta releases in a new model family, released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying release is Meta's first publicly released model of a new model family. New versions, updates, modes, variants, or re-releases of models in existing families will not qualify.
Each listed option's family name is its name excluding "Muse". This market will resolve to the listed option whose family name, together with "Muse", appears in the qualifying model's official name, regardless of word order, capitalization, spacing, punctuation, or hyphenation, and regardless of accompanying modifiers such as version numbers, dates, or mode, size, or variant designations. A family name appearing only as part of a longer word will not count. If the official name contains the family names of multiple listed options, this market will resolve to the option that comes first in alphabetical order, exactly as listed in this market group.
This market will resolve to "Other" if no qualifying release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the qualifying model's official name does not include "Muse", contains no word other than "Muse" and such modifiers, or contains no listed option's family name.
The official name is the name under which the model is presented in Meta's primary launch announcement or, absent one, its model card. API identifiers, URL slugs, interface labels, and codenames will not be considered. Any subsequent renaming, cancellation, or reclassification will not affect resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
This market will resolve according to the first qualifying release. If multiple models are released on the same calendar date (ET), all will be considered; if only one qualifies, this market will resolve according to it. If multiple qualify, this market will resolve to the option that comes first in alphabetical order, exactly as listed in this market group.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 18¢ for Muse Fire right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “What will the next Muse model family be named?”?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Muse Fire, at 18%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.